Earlier this month, researchers published a statistical analysis of mortality data in England, Wales and the United States, disproving the common statement that, after menopause, women face increased rates of mortality from heart disease. There are other studies that have come to similar conclusions, but there are a few things that make this study different. One is that it drew on epidemiological data from three different parts of the world, which reduces the likelihood of a local coincidence. A second is that they took care to create longitudinal data sets, comparing women born in different birth decades with the appropriate mortality over time. In doing so, they avoided the problems of cross-sectional data.

The authors found that there was a steady exponential increase in risk with age, and that there was no sign of accelerated risk at the typical age of menopause (50). They compared different versions of mortality curves, and were able to show that a two-stage model of mortality with a hinge at menopause was not a good fit to the data.

These findings have received national and international coverage, and are a major blow to the argument that menopausal women require premenopausal hormones to retain premenopausal protection from cardiovascular risk. Menopausal women are older than premenopausal women, and that is why they are more likely to die from cardiovascular disease, not because of the hormonal changes of menopause.

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